Football supporters are, generally speaking, a funny old breed. Many of us like to wrestle some control over something that we know, deep down, we have absolutely no control over. From wearing lucky underpants to always entering the ground through the same door, each fan is likely to have their own superstition or routine that they engage in in order to try to control the uncontrollable.
Another thing that people are willing to do is look anywhere for some sort of guidance about what might happen in a game that we’re interested in. It is likely the latter factor that encouraged people in Germany to ask an octopus who would win some matches…
Who was Paul the Octopus?
When you hear someone talk about ‘Paul the Octopus’ making predictions on football matches, you’d be forgiven for imagining that the speaker is discussing someone who was given the nickname ‘the Octopus’ because they had long arms or something. In actuality, we’re discussing a literal common octopus, who was hatched from an egg at the Sea Life Centre in Weymouth, England. He was then moved to a tank at the chain’s centre in Oberhausen, Germany. His name came from a German poem, entitled Der Titenfisch Paul Oktopus. From an early stage, Paul was considered to have demonstrated a sense of intelligence.
That manifested in the way that he looked at the visitors who came to the Sea Life Centre, causing those responsible for his care to do some experiments to find out what his ‘special talents’ were. Octopuses are intelligent creatures, bearing the ability to use tools, learn by observing and having both short and long-term memories. That being said, there is no evidence to suggest that the creatures have the ability to see the future. Not that that stopped some businessmen in the Spanish autonomous region of Galicia from putting together around €30,000 as a ‘transfer fee’ to take Paul to the Fiesta del Pulpo, the offer of which was rejected.
Paul’s Divinations
It was in the build-up to the 2008 European Championship that Paul was presented with two clear plastic boxes, both of which contained food. One box was marked with the flag of Germany, whilst the other had the opponent that the Germans were due to face on it. Whichever box Paul opened first and ate the contents of was deemed to be the octopus’s prediction for the winner of the forthcoming match. In spite of the fact that draws were possible in the group games, Paul wasn’t given the option to choose this. The fact that Paul chose Germany in each of the matches of the Euros suggests that maybe he was attracted to a colour or the smell of what was in the box.
@detective.tigerClairvoyant Octopus: This octopus predicted 12 of 14 World Cup matches in 2010 🐙⚽ Paul the Octopus picked winners by opening boxes with flags—and got 85.7% right! #PaulTheOctopus #FIFA2010 #WorldCup #SoccerStory #SportsFacts #ViralAnimals #TrueStory #FootballTrivia #WeirdHistory #AnimalGenius
Nevertheless, he got one of three group stage predictions correct, with his only error being when he predicted Germany to beat Croatia before they lost 2-1. He also picked Germany in the quarter-finals, seeing them win 3-2 over Portugal, as well as in the semi-finals, where they defeated Turkey by the same scoreline. A prediction of a German win in the final was incorrect, however, given that they lost 1-0 to Spain in the final. Professor Chris Budd, of the University of Bath and Cambridge University’s Professor David Spiegelhalter, suggested that Paul’s run was not dissimilar to tossing a coin, boasting odds of 1 in 64 that he’d correctly predict six results a row.
The 2010 World Cup
Having become something of a star during the European Championship, even spurring on other animal predictors like the animals at Germany’s Chemnitz Zoo and Mani the parakeet in Singapore, Paul was called back into service for the World Cup two years later. This time, Paul chose to mix things up a little bit and not just choose Germany to win each time. Just as well, considering the fact that the Germans didn’t win all of their games. They did emerge from the group stage thanks to wins over Australia and Ghana and in spite of a loss to Serbia, all of which Paul managed to correctly predict by eating from the right box each time.
In the knockouts, Paul correctly predicted Germany’s win over England (much like everyone else), and identified that his adopted country would emerge successful from their game against Argentina. Paul also knew that Spain would present the Germans with a tougher challenge, selecting the Spanish as the winners ahead of their 1-0 victory. In the third place play-off, Paul chose Germany to win against Uruguay and they promptly ran out 3-2 winners, then in the final he chose Spain as the winners over the Netherlands, which he also got right. Although some claimed it wasn’t the same octopus, that isn’t anywhere near as fun a tale to tell.